The pending negotiations between the U.S. and Taliban have some experts “cautiously optimistic”. Peace Science shows us that successful peace talks often depend on the type of leverage possessed by each party.
In the News:
“The United States has restarted conversations with the Taliban, the hardline Islamist group that America and NATO set out to dislodge more than 16 years ago. It’s part of the Trump administration’s effort to end America’s longest war, which has killed around 2,400 Americans and more than 30,000 Afghan civilians. It’s still unclear if the new talks will lead to a political resolution; one expert I spoke to put the chances of success at around 20 percent. But others see it as an ambitious and bold move that could potentially lead to some kind of tenuous peace for the country. And the reason for this renewed optimism, surprisingly, has to do with the Taliban itself.”
Why the Taliban might be serious about peace talks:
Support From Peace Science:
During peace talks, success often depends on the leverage possessed by each party. The Taliban’s growing control has increased their leverage and authority to negotiate a peace agreement.
- Agreements mediated with credibility leverage last twice as long as those without.
- Capability leverage is most effective to facilitate the signing of peace agreements.
- Credibility leverage is most effective at generating durable and longer-lasting peace after the agreement is signed.
- “Why some experts are cautiously optimistic about peace talks with the Taliban” By Alex Ward for Vox. August 3, 2018.
- Peace Science Digest Volume 1, Issue 3: “Types of mediator leverage and the strength of peace agreements“