The RAND Corporation published a report analyzing the impact of U.S. troop presence and/or military assistance on intrastate and interstate conflict.
In the News:
- “Overall U.S. military assistance [in intrastate conflict] is positively associated with an increased risk of anti-regime activities and greater levels of state repression by incumbent governments.”
- “U.S. military assistance, much of which has historically been in the Middle East, may overall be associated with a greater likelihood of repression or domestic instability”
- U.S. troop presence is associated with a lower likelihood of interstate war but increases the likelihood of lower and higher intensity militarized disputes.
- No observed relationship between U.S. military troops presence and intrastate conflict, but positive association observed between military assistance and anti-regime activities and state oppression.
Peace Science Insights:
- U.S. military support to another country increases the chance of attacks from terror organizations from that country.
- 95% of all suicide attacks are conducted to encourage foreign troops to leave the occupied country.
- Depending on their relevance to U.S. foreign policy, U.S. troop presence can lower human rights levels in a host country.
- “U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict” by Angela O’Mahony, Miranda Priebe, Bryan Frederick, Jennifer Kavanagh, Matthew Lane, Trevor Johnston, Thomas S. Szayna, Jakub P. Hlavka, Stephen Watts, and Matthew Povlock. RAND Corporation. 2018
- Peace Science Digest: Vol. 1, Issue 6 “Military Support And An Increased Vulnerability To Terrorist Attacks”; Vol. 2, Issue 5 “Human Rights Implications Of Foreign U.S. Military Bases”.